October 2, 1968

Wallace Won’t Come Close:
 Will Change Major Parties

A wry joke now making the rounds is that Hubert Humphrey may get enough votes to throw the election into the House of Representatives.

Which is just a back-handed way of saying that Third Party Candidate George Wallace is much more popular than the Democrats and Republicans like to admit.

Because I wrote six months ago that Wallace was a lot stronger than the old guard politicians recognized, several readers anxiously inquire about my current assessment of his candidacy.  I sure wish I could quit while I am ahead with one early and accurate prediction.  For what it is worth, however, here are my views five weeks before election.

First, the odds on Wallace winning the presidency are zero.

Second, the odds on his throwing the election into the House of Representatives are about 100 to 1.

Third, his chances of permanently altering the South's alignment with the Democratic party are about 5 to 1—pretty good.

Just as it was a mistake six months ago to under-rate Wallace, so is it folly to over-rate him today.

Wallace's opponents are wasting their ammunition by calling him a racist, for that is true only in a relative sense — a fine distinction lost on those to whom he appeals.

There are some who make no bones about their desire to keep Negroes in the category of second-rate citizens.  Fortunately, this group is a minority, even in Dixie: To them, however, the term "racist" is laudable.

To most of Wallace's followers, the big issue is that of "law and order."

Attempts of the liberals to equate law and order with racism just won't wash.  As a matter of fact, such heavy handed effort to negate the law and order issue with charges of bigotry only confirm the belief that hoodlums today are coddled.

Wallace is popular because he speaks out in no uncertain terms about the moral break down in our society — disrespect of law, violence, depersonalization of government, public sex, erosion of individual civil rights.  Those who flock to his rallies are fed up with official permissiveness whether for white college kids or black ghetto rioters.  It is not a matter of race, but a matter of equal enforcement of all rules of conduct.

For the majority this means equality of responsibility as well as equality of rights.  They discriminate neither AGAINST nor FOR the Negro.  It is useless to assert that failure to favor and forgive black rioters is "de facto" discrimination.  This is clever semantics, but contrary to widespread public opinion.

Wallace is most often attacked for his refusal to honor a federal order to integrate the University of Alabama, an obvious proof to the liberal of racism.  What is not brought out was his contention that the order was illegal and infringed on the constitutional power of states.

Once the hasty government order was translated into a court order, Wallace readily opened the university to Negroes and went out of his way to make sure that the transition was orderly.  Blacks and whites mix today in perfect harmony at Bama -- a model for the rest of the nation.

Wallace has done more for the Negro in his state than any other before.  This is precious little, but it took political courage in Alabama.

I go to some length to give Wallace his due because an unreasoned, emotional attack on him prevents us from opposing his real shortcomings.

His appeal is negative, and therefore difficult to evaluate as to its long range potential for progress.  He has no background at all in international affairs.  Wallace's quick tongue could get us into real trouble.

His manner is blunt and tactless.  State affairs are enormously complicated and require the talent and dedication of thousands of able men.  My biggest criticism of Wallace is that he is unable to attract capable men to work with him.  At this late date he hasn't been able to name a vice-presidential running mate.  He would be totally unable to form a responsible cabinet.

Essentially, Wallace is a reformer.  After a' long period of abuse, reform sometimes is necessary.  It is doubtful, however, that our dissatisfactions are as horrendous as the shouters would have us believe.  We are not ripe for reform just yet.

Last month I traveled slowly through five southern states and two northern states, talking politics as I went.  I found sentiment for Wallace unusually strong.  Since then, the public opinion polls put his presidential strength at about 20 percent.

In the south, understandably, Wallace is strong with both the racist minority and the moderate majority.  I was surprised to find that he was 100 percent approved by the electorate in Tennessee, Kentucky and Florida where Barry Goldwater fared well four years ago.  In those areas, Wallace will take votes from Richard Nixon.

In the North, I found Wallace support almost exclusively among rank and file union workers.  This once was the monopoly of Hubert Humphrey.  The consensus among these voters is that too many Negro workers shirk their duties and get away with belligerency while the whites are held strictly accountable.

There must be some substance to this belief for it is so widely held.  My guess is that the situation results from a two-fold cause.  There is a labor shortage which always leads to lax discipline.  In addition, the Negro has learned that he can obtain preferential treatment by threatening to go to the many federal agencies implementing the various civil rights laws enacted in recent years.

Of course, a blanket condemnation of all Negroes for the inconsiderate attitude of a few is a disservice to the civil rights movement, but there it is.  Even here, however, there is no tendency of union folks to hold the Negro to an inferior status — the racist goal.  Rather there is a demand that the Negro be just as responsible as whites.

About half the Wallace supporters, as I read their feelings, will turn to one of the major parties when the chips are down Nov. 5 and they are kidding no one but themselves in the privacy of the voting booth.

Most Wallaceites admit their vote for him would be a protest.  In the final moment of truth, the positive declarations of Nixon and Humphrey will prevail.  It will be obvious that a protest vote will be a wasted vote.

In my opinion, Wallace will pull about 10 percent of the popular vote, and 70 electoral votes in the southern states — far short of any count to have an influence on the outcome of the election.

Wallace gives tongue to many forms of resentment — expressions the two major political parties are too timid to put into words.  Now that the hidden feelings are out in the open, and traditional ties have been broken, it is not likely that the old politics can ever be put back together again.

Southerners and unionists have discovered that the Democratic party does not have all the answers.  Right wing elements have discovered that the Republicans are not reactionary as hoped.

A new political alignment is certain to come from the Wallace assault on both parties.  It is too early to tell just what new party strengths will emerge.

One thing is certain, however, the old order will never be the same again.

Author: Lindsey Williams