October 30, 1974

Oil Situation 'Most Dangerous'

President Gerald Ford rattled the sword a few weeks ago, but it was so faintly done I wasn't sure he really meant it.

Now I am sure.  And the conviction gives me goose pimples.

We may be closer to all-out war than any time in the last 30 years.  At least the classical, historical conditions for major conflict are more prominent than they were for the Korean and Vietnam wars.

Up to now we've had little more than ideological ideas at stake.  The U.S. homeland or Europe was not threatened, yet we spent billions of dollars and wasted thousands of lives for something less than a direct threat.

Today we have an added ingredient that does affect us directly - oil.

Oil means energy, the very life-blood of industrialized society.  Without abundant, cheap energy western civilization will collapse in a matter of weeks.

We stand on the brink of disaster, and it is frightening.

It seems to me that President Ford was sending a carefully measured signal to Arab and South American states which have discovered the joys of black mail.

"It is difficult to discuss the energy problem without lapsing into doomsday language," Ford told the opening of the ninth World Energy Conference in Detroit recently.  The danger is clear.  It is severe."

"Exorbitant oil prices can only distort the world economy, run the risk of world wide depression and threaten the break-down of world order and safety," said the President.

Noting that nations often have gone to war over natural resources, Ford added that "no one can foresee the extent of the damage or the end of the disastrous consequences if nations refuse to share nature's gifts for the benefit of all mankind.

"Because vital resources are distributed unevenly," he said, "nations are forced to choose between conflict and cooperation."

Read that last quote a second time, but this time, between the lines.  It translates to "play ball or else!"

In the old days of sword-rattling, world leaders were not so subtle.  However, it is most likely that the present round of jet plane diplomacy by Henry Kissinger is aimed primarily at making Ford's veiled warning crystal clear.

President Ford lofted another signal last week when he told an audience in Omaha that a one-party, Democratic, veto-proof Congress might be tempted to enact "extreme economic legislation" and "threaten world peace."

Democratic National Chairman Robert Strauss doesn't have to have a house fall on him to detect a Republican innuendo.  He demanded that Ford apologize for intimating that the Democrats are a "war party."

A pair of war references by the Commander In Chief so close together turns my nerves to Red Alert.

So I hustled over to North Canton to pick the brains of Admiral Elmo Zumwalt, recently retired chief of U.S. Naval Operations.  The Admiral now spends his time stumping the country for military preparedness.

What about these small, but significant, statements of President Ford?  Are they for real, or do I have a bad case of Halloween jitters?

The admiral peered at me intently as he framed his answer, and this is, itself, unnerving inasmuch as his thick eyebrows give his eyes- always a piercing quality.

"I consider the present global situation the most dangerous of any time since World War II," said Zumwalt.

"The Arabs and the Russians have discovered that oil is our jugular vein," he said.  "They are using, and undoubtedly will continue to use, our energy-dependence as a weapon against us."

"Detente is, for Russia, only a shield behind which it builds military superiority.  The with-holding of oil from Europe and the U.S. is a vital part of detente strategy," declared the admiral.

"The Russians already have military superiority," Admiral Zumwalt said flatly.

The dynamic naval officer then proceeded to make a convincing case for more adequate funding of U.S. defense forces as a deterrent to Arab and Russian adventures.  "Peace through strength!"

When an expert on global strategy, such as Admiral Zumwalt, asserts the President is warning our antagonists about the danger of war, and that this is the "most dangerous" situation, I get the shakes.

Turkey and Greece, once stalwart NATO partners, tell us to go and fly our kite somewhere else than Cyprus.  Both threaten to pull out of the alliance that constitutes the first line of defense against Soviet ambitions.

Israel and Egypt renew their intentions to wipe the other out.

Jordan and Syria shake their fists at each other while -the Palestine Liberation Organization eggs them on.

Heretofore these shenanigans were defused by the U.S. and other big powers.  A vital natural resource was not part of the pattern.

Not so today.

A month of heatless winter in Europe, or a month of gasless Sundays in the United States will give Israel's belligerence toward her Arab neighbors the aura of a Holy Crusade.

Next time around, the temptation for Israel's military suppliers to turn their back and let Israel take over the oil fields may be too great to bear.

And the possibility of losing the precious natural resource to unfriendly control, likewise, may be too great for Russia to bear.

Now, as never before, America needs to pull together to meet a dangerous challenge.  It's time to knock off the name calling and self pleading.  A crisis is upon us, and only through unity can we meet it.

Author: Lindsey Williams