January 11, 1979

Recognition Of China

Americans who are dismayed by the disorders in oil-rich Iran, and bewildered by President Jimmy Carter's recognition of communist China, should understand that the two events are classic maneuvers in the world "balance of power" struggle.

The deadly serious nature of these developments is emphasized by Defense Secretary Harold Brown in a little-noted interview last week by the Washington Post.

Brown revealed that "planning is going ahead" with a highly mobile, hard-hitting force for conflicts to preserve our access to natural resources, primarily oil.

"The prospects of instability in developing countries are such that we might have a very difficult time avoiding the choice between active participation in conflict, or severe damage to our national interests and resources," he said.

"I think that's a worse problem than it was in the 1950s and 1960s," he continued.  "Our vital interests are more likely to be involved than in retrospect they probably were in Vietnam.  We're more resource-dependent on the outside world."

The political tip-off is Brown's concluding statement: "Recognition of Peking stabilizes the situation in a way that reduces our concern about northeast Asia.  It's very important to us that the Soviets not be able to throw their political and military strength all at one point."

This is straight out of Machiavelli - that Italian patriot who in 1513 set down the rules for maintaining national self interest.

With collapse of the Roman Empire, the western world broke into many small states.  Their local wars to gain the resources of adjacent neighbors resulted in a prolonged period of unrest we now call the Dark Ages.

Italy was divided into five principalities in constant battle.  Machiavelli, a diplomat, outlined his principles to establish peace and govern the republic in a book based on "the real truth of the matter; how we live rather than how we ought to live."

"The Prince" was dedicated to Lorenzo Medici, the ruler of Florence, who ignored the advice and soon fell.  Since then, however, dozens of powerful statesmen have risen to the top acknowledging the precepts.

Machiavelli urged bold action and a system of alliances by which powerful states are refrained from absorbing weaker ones.

"A prince is esteemed when he shows himself a true friend or a true enemy; that is, when, without reservation he takes his stand with one side or the other," said Machiavelli.  "This is always wiser than trying to be neutral."

"If you do not show your sympathies, you will be an easy prey for the winner - to the delight and satisfaction of the loser - and you will have no reason to expect anyone to defend you or give you refuge.

"When the two contestants are of such stature that you will have nothing to fear from the victor, it is even more prudent to take part in the war.  With your aid your ally is sure to win and, winning, to put himself in your power.

"It will always fall out that a party unfriendly to you will ask you to remain neutral, and those who are friendly will ask you to join them.  Irresolute princes, in order to avoid present dangers, usually follow the path of neutrality and more often than not are ruined.

"Let no state think that it can always adopt a safe course.  Rather should it be understood that all choices involve risks.  The order of things is such that one never escapes one danger without incurring another.  Prudence lies in weighing the disadvantages of each choice and taking the least bad as good."

In the realistic, political world of Machiavelli it is essential that the communist power of Soviet Russia and its allies be balanced by the democratic power of America and our allies.

We should keep in mind that Russia is actively engaged in forging another world empire on the same ruthless principles of ancient Rome.

The disorders in Iran are the handiwork of Ayatollah Khomeini, the elderly Iranian Moslem leader living in Paris exile and an avowed Marxist.  Throughout the past few months, Russia has been beaming anti-Shah Persian-language broadcasts to Iran - giving instructions in organizing riots and manufacturing bombs.

With the loss of Iranian oil to the western nations, the world balance of power tilted ominously to the Soviet Union.  It climaxed an active program of Russian infiltration throughout the developing Third World:

•  In the Middle East at Iran, Iraq, Syria, Oman and Yemen,
•  In Africa, at Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Morocco.
•  In Asia at Vietnam, Cambodia and Afghanistan.
•  In the Americas at Cuba, Panama, and Nicaragua.

In each instance, the western powers played it "safe" and withdrew their power in these areas.  There was real danger that the resulting imbalance in Russia's favor might tempt it into a major aggression against Europe, China or South America.

The only large reservoir of power left to restore the world balance was Red China.  Finally it was to the mutual advantage of the U.S. and China to stand off Russia.

Thus, an alliance between the richest nation and the largest nation - despite divergent cultural, political and moral standards - was a Machiavellian inevitability.

But hopefully that cynical move bought a few more years of Russian restraint.

Author: Lindsey Williams