March 22, 1979

Carter's Double-Dog Dare

How do you say, "Double-dog dare you," diplomatically?

Forward any, suggestions, right away to President Jimmy Carter.  He is scratching uncrossable lines in the dirt and needs to make certain his challenge is understood.

After a decade of retreat from world outposts, the United States has reached its area of obvious self-interest -- the oil-rich Middle East.

Interestingly, the President has taken a foreign policy stand that ranks with Monroe's "hands off the western hemisphere" and Teddy Roosevelt's "speak softly but carry a big stick"  Yet, few Americans are aware of the significant and historic implications of Mr. Carter's recent initiatives.

They are appropriate and courageous but carry risks we should understand.

As with many turning points of history, the locale seems unworthy of so momentous a decision.

Thus, future school- children may be puzzled about why the United States made a big deal about Yemen back in 1979.  It is here than Carter has drawn a line he dares the Soviet to breach.

He apparently was tempted to stake out the U.S. position in Iran and even started out - a naval task force to the Arabian Sea.  The difficulty of identifying the foe -- a problem we failed; to solve in Vietnam -- led the President to halt the aircraft carrier and escorts Enroute.

Though Carter's wavering in the Iranian situation was less than encouraging, his final decision probably was correct.  The revolution there certainly was fomented by communists, but - religion was so intermixed with politics that a no-win situation existed.

Anyway, Iran furnished only five percent of U.S. oil needs -- not enough to justify "sending American boys to fight" on Arabian soil.

Yemen, on the other hand, commands the straits of the Red Sea on Saudi Arabia's southern flank.  The country split a couple of, years ago, and the Soviets now supply North Yemen in an invasion of South Yemen.  About 1,500 Cubans and Russians direct the North Yemen aggression.

It is reported that the king of Saudi Arabia was shocked by the rapidity with which the Iranian monarchy was toppled.  Though Iran was a close ally of the U.S.  -- possessing a large military well-trained and equipped by the U.S. -- Americans were unable to prevent overthrow.

Saudi Arabia now supplies about 13 percent of U.S. oil needs.  This amount has become critical with collapse of Iran.  In addition, the Saudis need reassurance about U.S. intentions and resolve.

The Yemen situation provides an odds-on opportunity to redress the balance of power in the Mideast.  The conflict is between two clearly separated groups, not too extensive, not too many people involved, no religious fervor.  The combatants already are talking cease-fire.

A moderate show of force in South Yemen will stiffen the backbone of Saudi Arabia and perhaps prop up the other potential Mideast dominos.

To achieve this objective, President Carter has re-routed the task force waiting in the Indian Ocean, flown in a few tons of military supplies, and -- almost unnoticed -- sent over a hundred or so "military advisers."

Yemen-is only one end of Carter's line of demarcation.  The other is anchored in Israel.  The fine print in the Israel-Egypt treaty requires the presence of U.S. "military units" to keep the peace, and a billion dollars a year for technical aid.

Now we will test communist daring, and they our will.

Past U.S. presidents have had mixed results in drawing lines.  As already noted, Monroe and Teddy Roosevelt made their challenges stick.  John Kennedy broke even, staring down the Soviets in Cuba butt provoking the North Vietnamese with military troops.

Harry Truman brought on the Korean War by drawing a "defense perimeter" carelessly.  Shortly after the Nationalist Chinese fled to Taiwan, the Peoples Republic kicked us off the mainland.  Truman then literally drew a line on a map which he declared the U.S. would defend.

The defense line extended through the Sea of Japan and the straits of Taiwan.  Not included in our self-proclaimed sphere of influence was the Korean peninsula.

Within weeks, delighted North Korean communists invaded South Korea.  They were the most surprised people in the world when Truman sent General Douglas MacArthur across our own line to reclaim what we had publicly abandoned.  Thousands of Americans died because of a presidential miscalculation.

The Korean and Vietnam wars surely weigh heavily on President Carter's mind as he develops the right response to our present world difficulties.

In those conflicts, American national interest was not evident.  We were engaged in, trying to save freedom for people we were not sure wanted it all that much.  In addition, we were asked to engage in - a war of "containment" rather than victory.

Americans -- by history and temperament -- are geared to winning..  The long, patient grind of attrition so ingrained in Asian culture is too much for American psychology.

Should we be challenged today, things most likely would be different.  Oil for American automobiles, is something to which all of us relate instantly.  With- the risks of declared lines and contained wars bitter history, we can assume President Carter is prepared to take decisive action if his "Mideast-Doctrine" is challenged.

Upon reflection, perhaps diplomatic statements of U.S. intentions would be misunderstood.  Blunt language suits blunt action.

And dares should not be given or taken lightly.

Author: Lindsey Williams