September 15, 1996

X-Factor Can Overcome Negative Political Advertising

Inasmuch as voters seem to be in a mood to debunk political myths -- this space last week explored that of bi-partisan support for presidents in military crises -- let's have a go with the supposed distaste of Americans for "negative" advertising.

Bob Dole, fired his advertising managers this week and hired a new team in an effort to climb out of his poll hole. No doubt the new advertising will be in attack mode. Dole explains that he is tired of the Democrats' "character assassination."

Bill Clinton lost no time in declaring, again, what he has predicted for the past year -- that Dole would "resort to the low road." Look who's talking.

Dedicated political party members hate negative ads directed at their candidates -- but love those directed at opponents.

About 10 percent of so-called "independents" dislike negative advertising -- but absorb it. Remaining non-party voters swallow attack ads uncritically.

Sadly, most elections are decided by centrist voters having no desire to study issue positions and records. Candidates use negative advertising because it works.

Consider, for example, the dismal poll numbers of Dole and House Speaker Newt Gingrich -- victims of the most intense, negative advertising in the history of politics.

Attacks on Gingrich began exactly a year ago. The American Federation of Labor launched a $35 million advertising program to demonize him -- for making good on welfare reform promised in the Contract with America.

President Clinton, signed the measure into law, but is forgiven by labor and the liberal press because the devil made him do it.

The Democratic National Committee began running anti-Dole ads in March after it was clear he had locked up the GOP nomination. The strategy is to scare old folks with assertion he would "slash" Medicare. That charge is totally false. He would increase benefits at twice the rate of inflation.

No matter whom is elected, Medicare will have to be reined in or it will go bankrupt within five years. Truth in advertising does not apply to politicians.

The Democrats' attack ads that finally stirred Dole to fight back are masterpieces of the genre.

One depicts a middle-age couple worrying that feeble grandma would die if the mean Republicans get elected and kill Medicare.

Most recent below-the-belt Democrat ad portrays sad parents thanking Clinton for the Family Leave law -- "opposed by Dole" -- so they could spend "precious last moments with their dying little girl."

Dole declared the ad a "moral outrage." The truth is he held up the original draft of the Family Leave bill until it was broadened at his insistence.

No corporation that I ever heard of refused employee leave for serious family emergencies. The law is just another feeley-feeley solution looking for a problem.

The ad recalls the 1964 anti-Goldwater video showing a little girl picking petals off a daisy -- in count-down cadence -- as an atomic bomb cloud mushrooms to envelop her.

The Republican candidate had no intention of dropping an atomic bomb on the Soviet Union, but emotional impact of the thought drove reason from the minds of voters.

The Dole campaign manager whose duty it is to track Democrat advertising says that since August 18 the Clinton campaign has run 11 negative ads 4,400 times attacking Dole.

Another ad running 42 times hits Republicans in general.

It is likely that the Dole committee skews its analysis, but the disproportion is obvious. The public, and national media, are not aware of the assault because the ads are scattered in local markets where swing voters predominate.

Dole appears too far behind in the polls to benefit by hard-hitting advertising. The latest, as this is written, places him 19 points behind Clinton "if the election were held today."

This figure, based on random sampling of the population, is just a popularity contest. Respondents include people not registered to vote but say they are.

Even after winnowing talkers from serious, eligible voters, Dole is probably five or six hard points behind. This is a difficult hurdle.

Nevertheless, every political race is jolted by the "X- factor" -- an unforeseen event or disclosure potentially fatal to a candidate.

Whitewater hangs over Clinton's head like a Damocles sword suspended by a single hair. Former business partner James McDougal -- convicted of fraud -- is singing to a grand jury in return for lighter sentences for himself and ex-wife Susan.

She was carted off to jail in shackles this week for 18 months when she refused to answer a judge's question: "Did President Clinton tell the truth in his subpoenaed statement to the grand jury?" Perjury is a more serious offense than contempt of court.

It is fair to ask what the McDougals and Clintons are hiding. Whatever it is, it will be grist for juicy Republican advertising if the grand jury discloses before the election.

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

PARTING SHOTS

It is terrible how candidates say scandalous things about each other that are true.

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The lawyer wife of Dick Morris, Clinton's former political strategist, says she stands by her man despite his year-long dalliance with a Washington prostitute. When Morris gets his $2.8 million advance for a book he is writing about the Clinton campaign, she can file for divorce and get half.

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When you point a finger at someone, three of your fingers point to yourself.

By Lindsey Williams, columnist for Sun Coast Media Group newspapers