August 22, 1999

GOP Candidates in Iowa Reorder Their Political Lineup

Winner of the Iowa Republican “straw poll” was – none of the above.

Front runner was Texas Gov. George W. Bush with 31 percent of 25,549 votes cast. He was reported to be elated that “we met our expectations.”

Bushwa. He expected to wrap up the GOP nomination before the first primaries next February with 51 percent or more. As his rivals point out, 69 percent of the voters wanted someone else.

The so-called mainline media – 90 percent liberal Democrats by their own admission to a famous poll – are gunning for Bush junior. He is continually asked if he has ever taken cocaine, and he continually refuses “to play the gotcha game.”

Bush is caught in the old, killer question: “Have you stopped beating your wife?” Any direct answer is a snare. Worse, he is being successfully tagged as a “fraternity boy” for a misspent youth. There is blood in the water and sharks are circling.

Steve Forbes, rich publisher of a financial magazine, came in second. He, too, is doomed by the media for “trying to buy the nomination.” Only rich Democrats like Franklin Roosevelt or the various Kennedys are allowed that privilege.

Elizabeth Dole came in a strong, unexpected third with a good turnout by women. More importantly, she has overcome that sugary southern belle speaking style and now comes across as a confident executive.

No one quite yet expects a woman to be elected president and commander-in-chief. Americans might be ready to accept a woman vice- president, but that is not in the cards if Bush is nominated.

As a western “compassionate conservative” cum moderate, Bush will choose a “social liberal” cum moderate from a big, northeastern state. New York Gov. George Pataki, or Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge would be – as they say in the trade – “just the ticket.”

You and I do not elect presidents and vice-presidents. This duty is assigned by the Constitution to the Electoral College.

Each state is entitled to the number of electors equal to its number of members in Congress. Electors are faithfuls of the winning party. They are chosen in the November elections by the name of the presidential candidate they vowed in the primary to support.

Actual election of the ticket occurs on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December at respective state capitals. Electors customarily vote for their party nominee.

Electors must cast a ballot for at least one person who is not an inhabitant of the electors’ home state. This ensures that presidential and vice-presidential candidates from the same party will not be from the same state.

Now consider the electoral clout of Texas (32), New York (33) and Pennsylvania (23). If Bush is nominated, the best “balance” for a ticket would be either New York or Pennsylvania. The electoral vote of either one -- plus that of Texas -- would trump the 54 electoral votes of California which is widely predicted to go Democratic.

Illinois or Florida also could provide trumping electoral votes but do not tap into the liberal inclinations of the northeast.

The also-rans at Iowa must reassess their chances. Lamar Alexander, former governor of Tennessee and GOP presidential candidate six years ago, has pulled out of the race. His lack of support is strange, given his support of education and a moderate tax cut. Perhaps he wanted the job too much.

Former Vice-president Dan Quayle has been badly wounded -- again. Not only did he finish a dismal eighth in a field of nine, his top South Carolina campaign aides swung over to Sen. John McCain within minutes of the Iowa vote count.

McCain did not show up for the dog and pony show. His announced strategy is to make the plunge in New Hampshire after everyone else has beat themselves to death. He and Sen. Orrin Hatch, who finished last, may be dark horses that could nose out the pack at the finish line.

In addition to Quayle, the other unabashed conservatives – Gary Bauer, Alan Keyes, and Pat Buchanan – are tilting windmills. Ultra conservatism and liberalism have gone out of style. Sic transit gloria.

PARTING SHOTS

Iowa auto workers endorsed Gore recently then withdrew it on orders from the AFL national office. What ever happened to “Solidarity Forever?”

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A shortage of special paint to mark trees for logging in the Rocky Mountain forest has reduced lumber production by 25 percent. Only government bureaucrats worry about the environmental impact of ordinary paint on trees about to be sawed up.

By Lindsey Williams, columnist for Sun Coast Media Group newspapers