October 10, 1999

Strategists Jostle to Front-Load Primary Election Race

The wacky world of party-primary politics has been shaken up again.

New Hampshire, proud of conducting the nation’s first elections, has hurt Iowa’s feelings by moving to Feb. l -- just a day after the latter’s bellwether caucuses. At stake is the "honor" of being first to indicate how the political wind is blowing.

With the advent of televised sound bites and overnight polling, politicians noted that early wins seem to create "big mo" –  that is, momentum, formerly  "bandwagon." State party chairmen have leap-frogged each other in a mad rush to front-load the public decision process.  

If one assumes that early wins determine final outcome, the winners on Nov. 7, 2000 will be decided by March 7. At that time, 16 states -- including the  800-pound gorillas California and New York -- will have voted with enough electoral count to sew up the general election.  

Only if the super-Tuesday results are close will eight states -- including the heavyweights Texas and Florida – have a chance two weeks later to influence the likely Nov. 7 final.  

Beware the Ides of March. It’s a long haul to that point, and then it’s another seven months-plus to the finish line. Americans already are suffering from political fatigue. Partisan front-loading may prove to be attention off-loading. Certainly there will be heavy down-loading of campaign cash.

Party leaders claim every election is the most important of all time. Yet, the present cycle really does qualify.

The quadrennial election of a president, all members of the House and half the Senate will coincide next year with a census. This is a conjunction that occurs just once every 20 years.

Governors and state legislatures elected next year will use the census to re-draw congressional districts for 2002. This will favor boundary architects for the next decade.

Furthermore, the Supreme Court justices are more elderly than usual. The three oldest are Republican appointments – Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, 76 next year; John Paul Stevens, 80; and Sandra Day O’Conner, 70. An unusual number of decisions in recent years have been decided 5-4. The next president may have the privilege of appointing more than one new justices.

Regardless of the importance of the upcoming election – or its cost, campaign length or negativism – Congress in 2001 must reform political campaigns.

Those statesmen who crafted the Constitution understood the shortcomings of political "factions." They tried to avoid them with an Electoral College to choose presidents and with election of U.S. senators by state legislatures. Only the House of Representatives – with control of Federal purse strings -- was to be chosen by popular vote.  

These checks on public enthusiasm were quickly jettisoned. Electors announced their party loyalties prior to their own election.

Political clubs chose candidates. Leaders jockeyed for advantages in the privacy of smoke-filled rooms. Professionals made the decisions. Starting in 1903, many state legislatures enacted primary elections to curb party abuses.

The Constitution’s 17th Amendment adopted in 1913 established popular referendum for senators.

The Supreme Court in 1947 struck down the vestiges of the "private club" concept. It held by a 5-4 opinion, that political parties are a "public service" subject to regulation.

It is not likely that we will return to the original intent of the Constitution. Political parties have become immortal – locked into regulation and protection. They tinker with remedies that appear to take out the sting but leave the swelling.

One is reminded of Sisyphus, the legendary king of Corinth, who tried to out-smart the Greek god Zeus. As endless punishment, Sisyphus was condemned to push a great stone up Mount Olympus, then lose his grip as he neared the summit and see the stone roll back to the valley.  

Senators John McCain and Russell Feingold would Band-Aid the political process by banning "soft money" contributions filtered to candidates through secondary organizations. Not only do Republicans and Democrats want to keep the money spigots open, the Supreme Court has ruled that cash is a form of free speech.

The National Association of Secretaries of State propose regional primaries – one each in March, April, May and June. This would prevent front-loading by vote giants California, New York and Texas. However, it would do nothing to alter the impact of money, personality and teevee.

In retrospect, smoke-filled rooms don’t seem all that bad.

PARTING SHOTS

Gov. Jesse Ventura twanged a lot of nerves in his Playboy interview  characterizing churchgoers as "weak minded." His trouble is that he says what he thinks without thinking.

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The Washington Post reports that President Clinton wants to go to Vietnam before his term ends. OK. It’s safe now.

By Lindsey Williams, columnist for Sun Coast Media Group newspapers