Feb. 27,2000

Delegates, Not Votes, Key to Gaining Party Nomination

If Al Gore’s neck seems stiffer than usual, there’s a reason. He has been looking back a lot at his Republican opponents.

Something seems to be gaining on him, and it is not Bill Bradley.

The Michigan primary last Tuesday – one of the biggies in delegate count – was a wake-up call for Democrats as well as Republicans.

Media types and pollsters dwell on vote counts and popular opinion. However, political professionals watch the accumulation of delegates to the national nominating conventions this summer.

Gore is far ahead in the Democratic beauty contest that consists largely of “closed” primaries. He has 42 delegates in hand. Bill Bradley is running on fumes with just 27. The liberal-union-racial establishment is chaffing to administer the mercy blow to Bradley.

The Dems will send 4,339 delegates to their convention. The nominating plurality is 2,170 votes. If Bradley is trounced in Washington state next week, he might withdraw from the race to conserve Gore’s war chest for the general election.

Republicans have a real donnybrook going with their mishmash of caucuses, “open” primaries and party-members-only systems. The delegate lead has see-sawed.

Bush won Iowa, Delaware and South Carolina – all GOP strongholds – for a total of 67 delegates. John McCain prevailed in New Hampshire, Michigan and his home state of Arizona totaling 96 delegates.

The GOP will send 2,066 delegates to its convention. The nominating plurality is 1,304 votes. Both Bush and McCain probably will stay the course to a raucous convention.

Michigan was a wake up call for everyone.

It was expected that Gov. John Engler – an announced Bush stalwart -- would provide a “fire wall” for Bush against any further inroads by McCain. The Michigan governor had won three terms against determined labor union opposition. In Tuesday’s debacle, however, Engler was able to deliver only six delegates.

McCain garnered 52 Michigan delegates by votes of independents and Democratic cross-overs – more than half of the record turn-out of voters. Engler asserts Republican Party had been “hijacked by outsiders.”

It is true that Engler and Republican leaders elsewhere opened their party to Democrat and independent voters during the President Reagan administration. This capitalized

on “Reagan Democrats” disenchanted by President Carter’s economic and foreign policies.

Inviting outsiders may still be a good strategy for Republicans even if it upsets rank-and-filers. Reagan became an outstanding president for his time and place in history.

McCain seems to be attracting Democratic and non-affiliated voters fed up with the Clinton-Gore administration’s shady fund raising, perjury, abuse of power and barn-yard morals.

With Vice-president Gore the sure candidate for Democrats – he of “no controlling legal authority” and bag-man for Buddhist Temple donations – disgusted non-Republicans flock to McCain. The Arizona senator’s in-your-face temperament, and fixation on government reform, fits their general mood.

Michigan Democratic party leaders encouraged members to cross over into the GOP primary. The intent was to vote for McCain and thereby weaken Bush. However, post-primary polls indicate that most Dems who voted in the Republican contest did so from conviction of Bush’s “compassionate conservatism” or McCain’s “government reform.”

If this conclusion is accurate, then Gore doesn’t have a chance to get elected president. Any other candidate will be the choice of moderates.

For Republicans there could be a flip side to regaining the White House -- losing Congress. In the absence of a national emergency, Americans seem to opt instinctively for a Constitutional check of power between the legislative and executive branches of government.

Divided authority has brought unprecedented prosperity. Not Reagan or Clinton thumping the bully pulpit. Not Gephart or Gingrich twisting arms.

In the heat of battle, Bush and McCain have moved dangerously from the moderate middle. Bush got engrossed in bucking up the extreme right. McCain lost his head pursuing voters for the general election. Both candidates first must get nominated by their party.

Of the l5 states holding primaries on March 7, eight will be restricted to party members for selection of delegates. Of these, California will bestow 162 Republican delegates. New York offers a prize of 102 delegates. Next will be Texas with 123 delegates and Florida with 98.

McCain says California is crucial to his campaign. Inasmuch as he has to convince registered Republicans, not Dems and independents. Bush, derided as the “establishment” candidate, will have the inside track with true-blue party members.

It is possible that McCain will win the popular vote in the primary contest but lose the party delegate nomination.

PARTING SHOTS

Noting that more than half the voters in Michigan’s Republican open primary were Democrats and Independents, friend D.C. thinks Protestants and Buddhists ought to be allowed to vote in the next election of a Pope.

Lindsey Williams is a Sun Herald columnist and can be reached at linwms@lindseywilliams.org