Feb 6, 2000

Open Primaries are Fun but Wholesale Politics Prevail

There is another bout of wooing so-called “independent” voters – in South Carolina Feb. 19 – before presidential contenders can get down to serious campaigning for the big enchilada March 7.

Little Delaware’s primary on Tuesday, with just three electoral votes at stake, is ignored.

Establishment candidates were rattled Tuesday when New Hampshire voters strongly supported challengers. John McCain whomped George Bush in the Republican race. Bill Bradley roared to a statistically dead heat with Al Gore.

New Hampshire tattered the “heir apparent” auras of Bush and Gore. This is a douse of cold water that will energize them to run scared – the only proper mode for a political candidate. McCain and Bradley rushed to South Carolina full of vim, vinegar and vitality.

Both sets of wannabes should not dwell overly much about the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina warm ups.

Iowa was simply a “caucus.” In the grand scheme of campaigning, caucuses are hocus-pocus. Supporters buy tickets then stand in candidate corners for counting. Candidates buss in voters and pop for the $5 tickets. In the old days, the cost of buying a vote was $1 or a long gulp of moonshine.

New Hampshire and South Carolina conduct cockamamie. “open” primaries. People not registered to any political party get to vote wherever they wish.

The potential for mischief in open primaries is obvious. Non-affiliates can vote for a weak candidate of one party, then for the nominee of the other party in the general election. Nah! They wouldn’t do that would they?

Open primaries sound like democracy. In truth it is free-ride citizenship. Non-affiliates can help impose the hard work of elections on someone else while complaining about the quality of politicians elected.

New Hampshire primary voters, over all, chose the ultimate president in the last 12 elections. Party wise, however, they missed twice in picking GOP party winners – naming Henry Cabot Lodge in 1964, and Pat Buchanan in 1992.

Granite Staters missed six times in picking Dem candidates – Estes Kefauver 1952 and 56, Eugene McCarthy 1968, Edmund Muskie 1972, Gary Hart 1984, Paul Tsongas 1992.

Conclusion for this year’s crop of candidates – winning or losing in New Hampshire is not always a sure thing.

Nevertheless, open primaries are another kind of public opinion polls useful to candidates in discerning windage. Iowa and New Hampshire disclose that character, government reform and Social Security are foremost in people’s minds. Tax cuts and abortion are off the radar screen.

Brashness, applied successfully by Bill Clinton, also is “in” as long as it is accompanied by an engaging smile. Smirks, real or imagined, and outrageous claims are “out.”

McCain scores high with young people when he turns away an impertinent question with: “There’s always a smart-ass in the crowd.” Media types love him for his non-stop buss interviews, and “town hall” meetings.

Bradley soared in the polls and primaries when he abandoned his gentleman tactics and attacked Gore with “opponent positions” -- a.k.a. negative advertising. Let’s stop wasting our breath moaning about this type of campaigning. It works.

Free advice is worth what it costs, but some things should be recommended Bush and Gore. First, lay off celebrity endorsements. They passed out of style for soap and cigarettes years ago. No one cares. George Bush the father, and Bill Clinton the president, are millstones.

Moderation is this year’s coin of the realm. Emphasis on conservatism or liberalism turns off voters.

Right-wing and left-wing tactics once were mandatory for primaries. However, regional differences and one- issue voters have declined in the age of mobility and around-the-clock news coverage. A “southern strategy” or a “special interest” approach are not as effective as they once were.

Press-the-flesh tactics is retail politics effective in small-states with time between their primaries. Geography and the clock limit this kind of effort. After South Carolina it’s wholesale.

Super Tuesday, March 7, will feature 16 primary elections – including electoral giants California and New York. There is enough electoral votes at stake that the presidential nominations will be decided then and there.

The nomination process certainly will be over two weeks later. Another eight primaries will include electoral heavy weights Texas and Florida.

Conventional wisdom predicts that George Bush for Republicans and Al Gore for Democrats will prevail. They have big bucks and big support from the political establishment. In the long run, this trumps unorganized independents.

One caveat. In every election cycle there is an “X factor.” Something unexpected jumps up to bite one candidate or the other.

Stay tuned.

PARTING SHOTS

A gay writer for Solon Magazine has admitted sneaking into the headquarters of Republican candidate Gary Bauer, an outspoken opponent of homosexual rights. The writer, suffering from flu, tried to pass along his infection to Bauer by licking door knobs, telephones and coffee cup.

Never has so little been done by so much spit.

Lindsey Williams is a Sun-Herald columnist and can be reached at linwms@lindseywilliams.org