March 19, 2000

A Peek at the Role of Peaks in Presidential Elections

Now that the mish-mash quaintly known as “party primary elections” have settled on Gov. George W. Bush and Vp. Al Gore, the presidential nominees can focus on the “peak.”

Of all preliminaries to the general election, nothing is as important as reaching maximum impact with voters at the magic moment -- or, as we say in the trade – peaking.

Extensive polling by political scientists – those at the University of Michigan come to mind – have determined that in the olden days of 1996 and before, 25 percent of the voters made up their minds two weeks before election. The other 65 percent decided their votes in the poll booth on the basis of name recognition or party affiliation.

In either case, the magic moment in this year’s general election should be October 24. At that time, swing voters supposedly will make an irrevocable decision, nincompoops will have the most-often-mentioned name etched in their brain and party regulars will resolve to do their duty.

The flaw in this received wisdom is that round-the-clock television news coverage, and newspaper website reporting, has introduced a new element of uncertainty in old surmises. Call it political fatigue.

Bill Clinton, the pioneer 21st-century politician, understands the effect of political fatigue. Deny, attack, obfuscate, parse and delay. In due time, political (and moral) shortcomings become “old news” to be “put behind us, and move on.”

The trouble with the fatigue syndrome is that it also induces revulsion among voting age Americans.

The concept of peaking is being tested by Bush and Gore. Both had such commanding leads in the polls, and money in their war chests, they could coast. Both were challenged when the laid-back strategy gave rivals a toe hold. A sprint to the Super-Tuesday finish by the front runners was necessary to prevail.

General election campaigns used to begin in earnest on Labor Day. Until then, voters were putting in crops, charring meat on the backyard grill or vacationing in the hinterlands. Politics was an intrusion on the good life.

The space between this year’s primary and general campaigns is too short to measure. Primary victory speeches vowed to take no prisoners. It’s going to be a long, hot summer.

Bush spent some of his ammunition on a tax cut proposal. Damn the torpedoes. Full speed ahead. He asserts he will peak “on schedule.”

Gore jumped on gun control – perhaps because he shot himself in the foot by claiming Republican John McCain’s campaign finance reform issue. At that very moment, Gore’s cohort in the Buddhist Temple rake off was found guilty of shoveling illegal hard money into the Clinton-Gore campaign.

The mainline media had a lot to say about Bush’s friends sleeping in the governor mansion but breathed nary a word about the Buddhist Temple verdict and Gore’s bagman role. Never fear, voters will be bombarded with reminders of both candidates’ defects by 30-second video clips.

Such intense politicking this early may create peaks so flat that no one will notice. What if we had an election and no one came?

The possibility unnerved the Republican and Democratic national committee chairmen. Jim Nicholson for the GOP, and Joe Andrew for the Dems, found a smoke-filled room where they could sit down and reason together.

They agreed that “front loading” the primaries with 16 states on March 7 was a disaster. The presidential nominees were decided before a majority of states had a say. Late blooming candidates like John McCain and Bill Bradley were denied the opportunity to work magic.

The inter-party confab mulled over three proposals:

*Three regional primaries a month apart, and the sequence of voting rotated over three elections.

*Four time-zone primaries, rotated as above.

* Graduated primaries with the lowest electoral count going first and the largest voting last. This would give lightly financed candidates an opportunity to build a following before running with the big dogs.

Proposal three is said to be favored. This would level the playing field somewhat, but not enough to jibe with right-now journalism or political conventions in June.

An improvement to proposal three would allow only registered party members to vote. If independents want input, let them have an all-party beauty contest after the summer conventions. This would be Pabulum for holier-than-thou bystanders and red meat for media tigers – but no effect on the serious business of electing a president and a Congress.

Then the Republicans and Democrats – and any other parties that qualify for the November 7 ballot – could plan their peaks and slug it out.

It’s the American way. A poor thing, but our own.

PARTING SHOTS

Good advice for campaign contributors staying overnight in the Bush governors’ mansion, or the Clinton White House – “Never sleep with anyone crazier than yourself.”

Lindsey Williams is a Sun-Herald columnist and can be reached at linwms@lindseywilliams.org