March 12,2000

Exit Polling Threatens to Make Secret Ballot Obsolete

Phooey on percentages!

It is possible that 99 percent of Sun-Herald readers will not read this column. Of those that do, 99 percent may wish they hadn’t. Of those who struggle to the final sentence, 99 percent might agree with my premise. Ergo, 99 percent of our subscribers read me favorably.

If you buy this logic you shouldn’t be allowed loose without your mother’s permission.

My sourness today is occasioned by inability to find in any newspaper the ballot counts of last Tuesday’s primary elections. Ballot counting seems to have become irrelevant. It has given way to polls and percentages. Final results may be the same, but certainty is missing.

It is scary to learn how pervasive polling and percentages have become in politics. Perhaps the fright is realization that polls can be accurate but based on cunning questions.

Back in 1974 I accepted the responsibility of campaign manager in Wayne County, Ohio, for Gov. Jim Rhodes who was running for reelection to an unprecedented third term.

Under Ohio law, governors can serve only two “consecutive” terms. Having done so, the popular Republican governor had to stand aside while Democrat John Gilligan took over the statehouse.

Four years later, Rhodes sought to do what no other Ohio governor had ever done – get elected to a third term. Many voters who had supported him in the past thought Rhodes was violating the spirit of the law.

Fred Neuenschwander, Rhodes’s chief aide and my Wayne County friend, persuaded me that the outlook was close but winnable. He was an early fan of political polling and deduced that five precincts in Ohio had always been on the winning side for governor – Republican or Democratic.

One of the precincts was in Wooster, the Wayne County seat. My job on election night was to phone the ballot count of that precinct to Rhodes’ headquarters in Columbus on a hot line. The key precinct went for Rhodes by 54 percent.

The outcome see-sawed on election night between Rhodes and Gilligan. Two of three TV networks, relying on “analysts,” called Gilligan the winner at 11 p.m. The third network said the race was too close to call.

At 11:30 p.m. Rhodes conceded the election and went to bed. I was watching the state returns at Wayne County GOP headquarters. I was so astonished at Rhodes’ declaration of defeat, I yelled: “Why are you doing that? You won!”

A Wooster Daily Record reporter present smiled indulgently while noting my reaction. At 3 a.m. the tide turned as the Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) returns filtered in. At 9 a.m., Rhodes was declared the winner with less than one-percent of the vote. Nonetheless, a win is a win.

I called Rhodes at his campaign headquarters to congratulate him. I asked why he had conceded when Neuenschwander had correctly called the shot. Rhodes replied sheepishly, “My staff told me not to do it. However, I was 60,000 votes behind and [Democratic] Cuyahoga County was still counting. I guess I was just psyched out by the networks.”

The Daily Record side-barred my election night outburst as a demonstration of political acumen – though Neuenschwander’s faith in polling five, swing precincts was the proper genius. Rhodes went on to also win a fourth term.

In Stupor Tuesday’s elections last week – oops, “Super” Tuesday -- television networks correctly called winners within seconds of state poll closings. It’s a little spooky, even if you have faith in high-tech polling and computers.

We learn that a consortium of six, major news organizations called Voter News conducted “exit polls” of voters as they emerged from key precincts. (Where are you today, Fred? )

It is unethical to ask someone how he/she voted. However, it is OK to ask their “views” on topics associated with candidates. The result – 99 percent accuracy in picking winners.

Armed with such juicy information, the TV and internet sources couldn’t resist the temptation to drop obvious hints prior to the ethical starting gun.

This was great theater, but disruptive to the secret-ballot process. Disclosing winners in big-ticket New York, for example, influences voters in later time zones such as big-ticket California.

Picking winners by polling invites mischief. Will we someday vote by computer clicks – with the danger of hacker intervention? Will we do away with counting and rely on exit polling in a giant, national primary? Could a future despot broadcast bogus percentages and steal elections altogether?

Beware the sorcerer’s apprentice.

PARTING SHOTS

After Gore’s overwhelming wins Tuesday, Bradley withdrew but urged his delegates to speak up at the Democratic convention.

McCain sour-graped his decisive losses to Bush by threatening to sic “independents” on the Republican party unless it platforms his ideas.

With friends like these, who needs enemies?

Lindsey Williams is a Sun-Herald columnist and can be reached at linwms@lindseywilliams.org