April 16, 2000

Good News and Bad News About Today’s Many Wars

There is good news and bad news about wars in the world today.

The bad news is that there are 25 active, armed conflicts being fought.

The good news is that this is two less than last year – and eleven less than the peak in 1989 at the close of the Cold War.

The hot spots are Asia with ten wars, and Africa with eight. The only major conflict in Europe was in Northern Ireland, though an armistice at the moment is a bit shaky.

In the middle East, the number remains at four wars – unchanged from year to year. American troops patrol trigger- happy factions in Bosnia, Kosovo and Serbia.

Most worrisome at the moment is the standoff by India and Pakistan over Kasmir. They threaten each other with nuclear weapons.

China vows to invade Taiwan if the latter makes another move to abandon the fictional tie to the mainland Peoples Republic. President Clinton warns he will order the sale of advanced cruise missiles to Taiwan – and naval air support – if China actually attacks Taiwan.

Prime Minister Zhu Rongji has softened China’s stance because it wants membership in the 134-nation World Trade Organization. His country needs open markets more than symbolic capitulation by Taiwan.

A significant break through on the peace front is this week’s request by North Korea for talks with South Korea. Communist North Korea is in the midst of a major famine. Only humanitarian shipments of grain by the United States have kept starvation at bay for the last five years.

Now abandoned is North Korea’s program to build a nuclear power reactor and long-range missiles. The firing of a test rocket across Japan last year was a defiant gesture of a collapsing North Korea.

Another break through is Israel’s decision to unilaterally withdraw from Lebanon territory it has occupied for twelve years as a buffer against Hesbollah terrorists quartered there.

Surely it is not a coincidence that Syrian dictator Hafes Assad – God father of Hesbollah, is making nice about the return of the Golan Heights which he lost during his invasion of Israel 33 years ago. There is no movement on this yet, but hints and foot-dragging is the modus operandi of Mid-east negotiations.

Even Iran – whose Muslim clerics instigated a revolt against the reformist Shah Pahlavia in 1978, and two years later humiliated the United States by holding hostage 62 American Embassy personnel for more than a year – is signaling it wants to make friends with Americans. The U.S. is willing to forgive and forget in return for oil.

The most serious threat of another war dragging in the United States and our ally Israel, is Saddam Hussein, the madman of Iraq. He remains a power despite the loss of his regular army and air force in the Gulf War. He has stated his twin goals are to “drive Israel into the sea,” and to corner the world oil market by “annexing” Saudi Arabia and Iran. Fat chance.

Unless Saddam is neutralized by the “one man, one bullet” process, sooner or later he will lob a few nuclear-tipped Scudd missiles onto Israel. That nation will defend itself by retaliating with a couple of pocket-size atom bombs. Who amongst us will predict the impact of this scenario on the whole Mid- east and the United States?

Small-scale wars in Africa, Near-east and Asia will bedevil the world for years to come.

The former protectorates – otherwise known as “colonies of Britain, France and Soviet Union – have an abundance of natural resources. However, they have weak national coherence, lack administrative experience, have very little infrastructure, are peopled with illiterate citizens, and suffer rampant corruption.

Without colonial protection, a few leaders in so-called “developing nations” are able to take control of the resources through wars of opportunity. It is not likely that viable peace will ever last long in these areas.

We debate endlessly what our obligation to these backward states should be. It is likely that we will wrestle with this moral, self-interest problem for years to come.

In the meantime, it is essential that the United States – as the world’s only super-power, and foremost disciple of representative democracy – be prepared to take sides and fight on a moment’s notice.

We look forward to the year that somebody starts a war and nobody comes.

PARTING SHOTS

President Clinton told the American Society of Newspaper Editors he is “not ashamed about being impeached,” and “not interested in being pardoned” for alleged crimes in the Monica Lewinsky scandal and Whitewater investigations.

This demonstrates, once again, that it is always better to tell the truth – unless, of course, you are an exceptionally good liar.

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People who do not worry about politics should have their television sets repaired.

Lindsey Williams is a Sun-Herald columnist and can be reached at linwms@lindseywilliams.org