July 30, 2000

Veep Choices Can Alter Presidential Election Dynamics

George W. either knows something about the true state of voters’ inclinations, or he will pay a heavy price for flouting a basic rule of campaign politics.

Conventional wisdom holds that a vice-president running mate should add value to the ticket:

* From a state with a good chunk of electoral votes,

* With ideology appealing to voters otherwise lukewarm to that of the head honcho,

* Having political skills lacking in the elected nominee.

In choosing Dick Cheney of Wyoming ( just 3 electoral votes), Bush gave up the possibilities of electoral prizes offered by Gov. Pataki of New York (33), Gov. Ridge of Pennsylvania (23), Gov. Engler of Michigan (18), Gov. Ryan  of Illinois (22), or Gov. Taft of Ohio (21).

Bush also passed over Governors Pataki, Ridge, Engler and Whitman of New Jersey who are winners in their swing states and moderate on abortion rights.

On political skills, however, Bush hit a home run with Cheney. He was chief of staff for President Ford, a Congressman from Wyoming for 10 years and Secretary of Defense for President Bush during the Gulf War.

Most importantly Cheney is a gentleman and bridge-builder who gets along well with Democrats – as does Bush.

Both men are foursquare conservatives who personally abhor abortion but state they are willing to modify their stand for instances of rape, incest or life of the mother.

They say they support gunlocks, a law that would deny felons the right to own guns and strict enforcement of existing gun laws.

They promote private enterprise, balanced budgets and lower taxes.

They support reforms for Social Security, Medicare and public education.  

 Neither man is apologetic about their "compassionate" conservatism. In announcing his choice of Cheney, Bush declared: "This is a conservative man, and so am I."

Bush seems so confident of election, he chose someone whom he likes and could rely on in the White House. Their low-key demeanor has led the liberal media to acknowledge the pair would conduct a ‘grown up" administration.

One wonders if the Bush campaign staff has sufficient "focus group" opinions to assure them Gore is in deeper trouble than over-night polls indicate. Perhaps this is the reason Bush feels he has the luxury of being himself and foregoing old style politics.

By locking in the ultra-conservative vote with Cheney, Bush can freely move to the center where elections are won or lost.

Certainly, Gore has problems. The labor unions are coming around to his candidacy reluctantly. Ralph Nader is siphoning off about five percent of the far-left union and environmental advocates – and this before the heavy campaigning starts after Labor Day.  

Another five- percent loss in California and New York would sink Gore for sure.

Bush’s conservative choice gives Gore a "Hobson" choice between a liberal or moderate running mate.

A liberal might bring wavering Naderites back into the fold. A moderate might attract the so-called "independents."

Until Bush veered daringly to the modified right, Gore insiders touted old-line liberals Sen. Harkin of Iowa, House Minority Leader Rep. Gephart and former Senate Majority Leader Mitchell.

Now that Bush seems to have abdicated the moderate label, Gore is vetting Senators Kerry of Massachusetts, Graham of Florida and Bayh of Indiana.

Either way, Gore will weaken a critical voting bloc for him. In the end, the Democrat candidate will have to cast his lot one way or the other. Best guess is that he will go left. That’s where the Democrat money and special interest workers are.

All of the above, is based on the assumption that the vice-president candidates make a difference in the election. The only example that supports this belief is the 1960 election.

Lyndon B. Johnson was persuaded to play second fiddle to John F. Kennedy. Texas’ 32 electoral votes demonstrably was key to a squeaker victory for Kennedy over Richard Nixon.

Despite Johnson’s electoral contribution, he was shunned by Kennedy. Clinton has made a determined effort to include Gore in White House decisions – a concession that perhaps is no favor.

Gore is closely identified with the shady Clinton fundraising, lying and barnyard morals. The vice-president may not be able to dodge the tar brush.

To overcome this handicap, Gore and his own tarring team has desperately adopted the Clinton demonizing tactics.

 Three minutes after Bush’s announcement, the Clinton attack dogs were on television sneering. They nit-picked Cheney’s congressional voting record 25 years ago. They had apoplexy over his job as chief executive officer of a Texas-based company that makes oil well drilling machinery. They brooded over his past heart surgery.

The political quandary created by Bush’s in-your-face appointment has so discombobulated Gore he is taking a week off to go home and "clear his head."

Whatever the final lineup, voters this year will have diametric choices between the right, left, far left and seemingly middle.

 PARTING SHOTS

If Gore clears his head it will be empty.

* * *

If Cheney moves any farther right, he will fall off the edge of the earth.

ooooo END ooooo

By Lindsey Williams, columnist for Sun Coast Media Group newspapers