May 27, 2001

China is Unspoken Target of U.S. Missile Defense

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is handicapped by a mind that focuses on possibilities (probabilities ?) 20 or more years in the future.

Forward thinking is prone to error. However, the problem with prophets is that they often are right.

Rumsfeld is under attack for proposing to build a "space shield." This is meant to protect us and our allies from nuclear missiles lobbed by "rogue nations."

Russia, Europe and cold war strategists here at home are in a tizzy. The Bush administration is said to be upsetting the 1972 Anti-ballistic Missile Treaty between the U.S. and Soviet Union.

The agreement was informally known as the Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) policy. It supposedly has kept Europe at peace for the last half century -- the longest such period there in history.

Aside from the fact that both the Soviet Union and United States  were bluffing about their nukes, Rumsfeld today is guilty of Delphic warnings – predictions cloaked in hidden meanings.

He mentions Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya and North Korea as potential bombers. Critics of a U.S. missile defense justifiably hoot that rogue nations are not about to hurl intercontinental missiles our way. To do so would bring instant retaliation ten-fold.

Nuclear bombs are easy to make and deliver in suitcases or a tramp steamer. Defense against this kind of menace is better left to suspicious customs agents and sniffing dogs.

So, whom is Rumsfeld worried about? Diplomacy prevents him from speaking forthrightly. But we can.  

CHINA.

Rumsfeld’s defense shield is meant to deter China from trying to immobilize the United States while communism appropriates the natural resources of Siberia and Indo-China.

 Such a Chinese aggression requires that the forward American bases of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Guam be neutralized.

To this end, China is pushing ahead with space satellite and guided missile technology – critical elements of which have been stolen or bought from Americans. It is believed the Peoples Liberation Army has 18 nuclear devices ready to go.

Critics of the U.S. missile defense claim it will take 20 years or more to develop a foolproof system, if ever. This may be true, but it probably will take China the same amount of time to perfect its weapons of aggression.

In the flow of time, 20 years is a tick in the 5,000-year history of China. Patience is a way of life there.  

To knock out a U.S. anti-missile defense, all of an aggressor’s first strike would have to be totally devastating. Uncertainty about whether all missiles get through is sufficient to deter trying. This is called a "scarecrow" defense.

By the same reasoning, a half-dozen Chinese intercontinental nuclear-tipped missiles will hold the U.S. at bay.

China has an official population of 1.2 billion – probably an undercount by several hundred million. So, in a nuclear exchange with the United States, a half billion Chinese could be incinerated. So what? China’s over-population problem would remain.

The sheer number of Chinese has absorbed all their enemies over the centuries. However, 85 percent of its useful land and people are devoted to growing food.

Global technology needs fewer farmers but more food, fewer laborers but more technicians, fewer back-scratchers but more manufacturing, fewer bicycles but more cars.  

China is working feverishly, ruthlessly, toward those goals. The fertility of Indo-China. and untapped minerals of Siberia, are tempting sources.  

President Bush and Rumsfeld were stung by the hostile attitude of China over the mid-air crash of a Navy surveillance plane and a PLA fighter over international waters. This prompted a new policy regarding military-to-military contacts with China.

President Bill Clinton in 1993 greatly increased military information exchanges with the PLA in hope of "engaging" China in

peaceful pursuits.

In retrospect, the U.S. good intention seems to have been a one-way street. The PLA received briefings on U.S. war policy and tactics. American military teams got propaganda and tea parties.

Rumsfeld says he, personally, will review future military-to-military contacts with the PLA.

Though China has not yet been declared an adversary, it is obvious that it is the country most worrying the Pentagon.

American military planners do well to heed the analect of Confucius, the great fifth-century B.C. Chinese philosopher: "If a man takes no thought about what is distant, he will find sorrow near at hand."

PARTING THOUGHTS

Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont, has thrown the Senate into turmoil by quitting the Republican Party and shifting control of legislation to the Democrats. Thus, the average intelligence of both parties has been enhanced.

 * * *

Senate Democrats filibuster Republican bills in hope 98-year-old Strom Thurman will die. Strom says he doesn’t plan to go.

By Lindsey Williams, columnist for Sun Coast Media Group newspapers