January 4, 2004

Ancient Janus of Two Faces Ogles Coming Year

Here we are again confronting Janus, the ancient Roman sentry of doorways who gave us the opening month of the year. He has two faces enabling him to look back and ahead at the same time.

It’s no feat to see what happened. Foretelling takes intestinal fortitude. Let’s have a go at the latter – taking heed that the future recedes before us.

Politics will overlay everything this presidential election year. It will be a humdinger.

George W. Bush will be the Republican candidate simply by incumbency. In addition the breaks are coming his way. Good luck is the first ingredient of smarts.

His Democratic opponent most likely will be House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt – former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’ slap-dash primary campaign notwithstanding.

This conclusion is based on the premise that Democrats who want to win will chose a centrist candidate -- i.e. Gephardt. He tried it once and came close against a good field. This time, his opponents are loose canons on the deck.

Centrist voters decide elections – unless a third-party firebrands gums up the works. Such are not in sight.

Democratic Party movers and shakers want fervently to avenge Al Gore’s electoral defeat in 2000. They won’t gamble on left-wingers, has-beens, or jokes that dominate the present crop of wannabes.

Gephardt will be the last Dem standing when the Democrat primary dust settles – probably after Iowa on Jan. 19, New Hampshire on Jan. 27 and North Carolina on Feb. 23.

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All presidential elections hinge on the economy. Thus, the election is Bush’s to lose.

He has won – or, is winning, take your pick – the war on terrorism via Afghanistan and Iraq. This is helpful but not politically decisive.  

More importantly he has stemmed Clinton’s recession -- induced by the largest tax hike in U.S. history – with a package of tax cuts and lower interest rates.

Economic growth hit 8.2 per cent in the third quarter while productivity soared and the jobless rate declined.

It might be prudent to tap the economic brakes a tad. For the long pull, 3 percent is about what can be absorbed by workers and taxpayers without triggering inflation.

Nonetheless, no incumbent politician in his right mind is going to squelch a bull market during campaign season.

Expect in the next few months increased presidential and congressional concentration on non-controversial things such as tort reform, energy production, homeland security, tougher beef regulations and motherhood.

Look for a Bush electoral landslide. A net increase of three Republican senators from the south. About the same in the House. Consequently, The GOP will be able to push through its judicial nominees and badly needed reforms in Medicare, Social Security and education.

 * * *

Overseas, we will continue efforts to weed out international terrorists with some successes, some frustrations.

Iraq will become a federalized democracy on the American model of separation of legislative, administrative and judicial powers.

However, religious turmoil will require a back up force of U.S. peacekeepers for a year or two more.

Democracy in the Arab world is not unthinkable as naysayers contend. Turkey made the transition from theocracy/autocracy 80 years ago. Egypt 50 years ago. Pakistan 30 years ago.

Of the remaining Islamic nations, Iraq has the best chance of becoming a model of democracy. It has the premier natural resource of oil. Also it has ample water supply with two great rivers, extensive agriculture and substantial infrastructure.

Iran – Bush’s second "Axis of Evil" – is in transition. There is substantial agitation for western style culture by young Iranians.

The situation is very much like the Chinese Tiananmen Square movement that resulted in more personal freedom under an autocratic government.

 Afghanistan will remain an American burden for years to come. It has no natural resources. Its only exportable crop is opium so the economy is controlled by foreign drug dealers and protected by local warlords.

Taliban religious fanatics have so indoctrinated the largely illiterate populace that personal liberty is a mystery. That country – one cannot call it a nation yet – must be some other nation’s colony. If not us, who?

Al Queda will decline greatly this year because (1) Usama bin Ladin has spent most of his personal fortune, (2) protector nations are running out of patience with his brand of persuasion, (3) target nations have become more adept in thwarting him and (4) his eternal parents – Mother Nature and Father Time – are calling him.  

Janus says, "Happy New Year!"

Lindsey Williams is a Sun columnist who can be contacted at linwms@lindseywilliams.org