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October 17, 2004Forget Popular Votes, Only Electoral Votes CountPost-debate popularity polls indicate Kerry has whittled Bush’s lead to a couple of points. Interesting but irrelevant. The political fact of life is that presidents are chosen by "electoral votes" – not popular votes. For confirmation, consult last election’s candidate Al Gore. In the last three presidential elections, neither candidate had a popular majority. Gov. Clinton in 1992 received a paltry 43 percent of the popular vote against President H. Bush. However, Clinton’s electoral votes totaled 370 versus the president’s 168. Clinton’s 1996 popular vote was 49 percent and electoral count 379. Dole’s numbers were 41 and 156. W. Bush in the last election garnered 47.8 percent of the popular vote and 271 electoral votes – one more than necessary. Gore’s numbers were 48.4 and 266. In short, forget the popularity polls. Now it’s time to get down to decisive politics of states won and lost. In the last election, Bush carried 30 states –mostly in the South and Western Plains states. These today are worth 278 electoral votes– seven more than last time because of population shifts. Chart-makers color these states red and tag them Republican. Gore’s states in 2000 – mostly the northeast and southwest coasts – today are worth 260 electoral votes. These states are colored blue and tagged Democratic. Recent opinion polls suggest a number of states – particularly in the Midwest and Northwest -- are "tinting" purple. That is, "battle ground" states. In the final two weeks of the campaign, both parties are pouring their remaining cash into the purple "swing" states. Recent polls indicate Bush is leading slightly in most of these -- but not enough to be comfortable. Of particular focus is Florida’s 27 electoral votes, Pennsylvania’s 21, and Ohio’s 20. It is likely that who ever wins two of these will net the electoral vote requirement of 270 or more. Bush won two of these – Florida and Ohio – in the last election but by narrowest of margins. Gore took Pennsylvania by a thin plurality. Ohio is of particular concern to both campaigns. A recent Gallup poll indicated Bush leading there among "likely" voters while Kerry tied with Bush for "registered" voters. Though Ohio usually leans Republican, that state – as Michigan and Pennsylvania – has suffered losses in manufacturing jobs. Never before has there been such intensive drives by both political parties to register new voters and drag them to the polls. There surely will be challenges to the election outcome as a result of the hasty registrations. The next ten days of the campaign is the X-factor season when an unexpected event or candidate gaffe persuades undecided voters to make up their minds. This year, the swing-voter element is small, but paramount. Don’t overlook the impact of Independent candidate Ralph Nader whose approval rating of 2 percent takes away a few, critical votes from Kerry. Fasten your seatbelts. * * * MORE FIRST GRADE HURRICANE POEMS (continued from last week) By Hope Powell Rattle rattle Crash crash Boom boom Pop pop Hide in the closet Peek out the door Flowers in the window Foggy wind Trees frozen It’s over House ruined Boo Hoo By Allissa Shaeffer Rattle, rattle A window broke Hide in the closet Wind howling Whoo-whoo By Eddrishia Smith Boom, boom All roofs fell down Pop, pop All windows broke Sh-sh-sh Air out of my bed I’m safe at Grandma’s! By George Stephen Rattle, rattle Get some snacks Bang, bang Get some towels Whoosh, whoosh Get in the house! Boom, boom Get some flashlights! By Jessie Valerius Boom, boom Get in the house Bubble, bubble Run for towels Howl, howl Went the wind By Austin Wise Shingles shaking Run, run Run inside Shing, shing Run in the closet Cram, cram Fire flames Sh, sh Cat hissing Crash, crash Tree falling on house By Tevin Xayavong Bang, bang Pop, pop Umbrellas up Check the cows Ching, ching, ching Cows in the cage Lindsey Williams is a Sun columnist who can be contacted at linwms@lindseywilliams.org |