October 3, 2004

How Kerry Won First Debate While Bush Scored

For those folks addicted to score cards, pencil in Sen. John Kerry as the "winner" on points in the first presidential grudge match.

President Bush got in some good punches and stayed on his feet – ready for round two.

Neither man was able to land a knockout blow. Stay tuned. Two more presidential debates and a vice-president shoot out are coming up.

Credit must be given to Jim Lehrer – host of the Public Broadcasting System televised news hour, for allowing the Bush-Kerry "presentation" to morph into a brief debate.

As devised by the Republican-Democratic Debate Commission in a 32-page recipe for strained pudding, questions and answers were tightly constrained.

Lehrer, unexpectedly, allowed one-minute "extensions" to outrageous two-minute sound bites. Both men defended their positions heatedly. For a brief moment or two, debate happened.

Moderators of upcoming "presentations" take note.

Among the restrictions intended, only one TV camera was to feed straight-on shots to all networks. The intent was to minimize "cut-aways" portraying the waiting speaker’s body language -- such as sighs and eye rolling.

The networks ignored the injunction – thus we got to see Bush’s annoyance at Kerry’s whoppers. And Kerry’s furious scribbling during Bush’s presentations.

Of such trivia are tv anchors made.

A one-hour-later public opinion poll by Gallup – when partisan blood pressure was highest – rated Kerry at 53 percent approval versus Bush’s 37 percent.

Kerry – the Yale student who organized a debating club – spoke fluently and without pauses.

He successfully wiggled out of the assertions of flip-flopping by admitting: "When I talked about the $87 billion, I made a mistake on how I talked about the war. But the president made a mistake in invading Iraq."

Bush, the Yale cheerleader, who purses his lips and pauses to choose his words, won the empathy game.

He described how he comforted a wife whose husband soldier was killed in Iraq, shed a tear with her and assured her the sacrifice was for the noble cause of democracy.

"I climbed the mountain and saw peace in the valley below."

One empathy trumps two "wrong war, at the wrong time, at the wrong place."

Kerry repeatedly alluded to his medal-bedewed service in Vietnam. Bush graciously praised Kerry’s war record. Kerry responded by criticizing Bush’s "pre-emption policy."

All of Kerry’s responses were attack, attack, attack. This sent his handlers and supporters into raptures.

Negative political ads do influence voters – until the criticism is overdone. Kerry plainly went too far.

Kerry characterized Iraq as a "grand diversion" from the war in Afghanistan to capture Osama bin Laden. The senator argues that if elected he will do a better job of winning by passing a "global test" with other nations.

Bush ridiculed such a requirement. He emphasized that he had obtained a United Nations resolution for war against Iraq on the basis of intelligence that Senator Kerry shared with the President and Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Most interesting exchange between Bush and Kerry was that involving North Korea.

Kerry insisted that Bush "handed four nuclear bombs to North Korea" by insisting on "multi-lateral" negotiations including China, Russia, Korea and South Korea.  

Bush pointed out Kerry’s inconsistency of demanding other nations be consulted on Iraq, but then criticizing that approach with North Korea.

According to polls, a majority of voters have already decided that Kerry is not fit to be commander in chief. But this not the controlling factor in this election.

Pundits agree that in a close election, unaffiliated voters – quaintly called "independent" -- decide the winner. It has been determined that just 10 percent of registered voters are undecided at this time.

Two TV networks hosted focus groups of undecided voters during the debate. They showed no change in attitude after Bush and Kerry had flailed each other for an hour and a half on foreign policy.

The economy and personal entitlements – not the war – will decide the next president of the United States.

It is expected that last week’s debut will give Kerry a point or two bounce in the polls, but Bush will maintain his slim, over all lead.

That is, unless one or the other falls victim to a stupendous gaffe. Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.

Lindsey Williams is a Sun columnist who can be reached at linwms@lindseywilliams.org