January 2, 2005

Janus of Two Faces Ogles Last and Coming Year

Here we are once more confronting Janus – the ancient Roman sentry of doorways who gave us the opening month of the year. He has two faces enabling him to look back and ahead at the same time.

It’s no feat to see what happened. One had only to read the Sun newspaper faithfully. Foretelling – particularly in the realm of politics

-- requires bravery and chutzpah.

Big event last year certainly was reelection of President George W. Bush – a.k.a Dubya. It was by a true a mandate – spindly but undisputed.

The event was significant in revealing the demise of liberalism in the Democratic Party. Being against something is not a cakewalk. How many times must liberal noses have to be rubbed in loss before they wise up?

Senators John McCain and Russ Feingold gummed up the works with their campaign spending “reform.” It approved unrestricted spending by partisan “Act 527” groups.

John F. Kerry went down with his Vietnam Swift Boat – and a limp salute. McCain can forget his presidential aspirations.

Confession being good for the soul, I admit missing the target by predicting Dick Gephardt would be the Democratic standard bearer. Gephardt who?

Look ahead three years hence to a centrist Democratic Party and a presidential candidate from a big electoral state. Think Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

Ditto Republican Party.

Biggest news events of the year were the rise of foreign insurgents in Iraq and the horrendous loss of lives inflicted by the Indian Ocean Tsunami.

These overshadowed events that otherwise would have had top billing:

* Successful uprising of Ukrainians for democratic elections.

* First democratic elections in Afghanistan.

* Death of Yassir Arafat that opened the door to resolution of the Palestine-Israel feud.

* Progress in rebuilding Iraq and establishing an interim, representative government preparatory to its first democratic election four weeks hence.

My prediction that Al Queda would decline greatly during 2004 was mostly accurate. There were no horrendous attacks against homeland United States, and Osama bin Laden has been reduced to videotape bluster.

Still pertinent is last year’s observation that Iran – Bush’s second “Axis of Evil” -- is in transition. There is substantial agitation for western style culture by young Iranians.

Also, Iran’s ayatollahs appear to have yielded temporarily to international pressure for suspending production of weapon-grade uranium.

Iran’s gobs of oil are a big bargaining chip, but it cannot be cashed if customers impose sanctions.

President Bush continues to play footsie with North Korea over its dabbling in nuclear weapons. That hapless country is more likely to implode from starvation for lack of terrorist dollars for weapons of mass destruction.

The outlook on the nuclear weapons front is mostly bluff by Iran and North Korea. They mostly want to keep the United States from coming ashore and spreading democracy.

Expect status quo on the nuclear front.

On the U.S.A. home front, focus on reform of Social Security and Medicare. These popular programs as now mandated are headed off a cliff.

Raising payroll taxes, cutting benefits or boosting eligibility are weak reeds. Like it or not, workers will be permitted to divert part of their Social Security taxes to personal investment accounts.

That privilege – already available to federal employees -- will stave off near-term disaster for Social Security. Long term, expect mandatory (forced) private retirement savings accounts for uenme.

Most significant will be Bush’s judicial appointments, as these have long-term affect on law and culture.

Chief Justice Rhenquist – afflicted with thyroid cancer – may be the first to retire during Bush’s second term. Justice Antonin Scalia – an unabashed conservative – has first dibs on the top job.

Nominee for the court vacancy also will be a conservative, but the choice will depend on timing. Former Texas Supreme Court justice Alberto Gonzales and White House counsel has the inside track.

However, Gonzales was just nominated for U.S. Attorney General. It will be year or so before he could be tapped appropriately for the top judicial post.

Also, Bush has a bruising fight coming up for his re-nominations of 20 Federal Court candidates denied up-or-down floor votes by Senate Judicial Committee Democrats.

Janus, where are you when we need you?

Lindsey Williams is a Sun columnist who can be contacted at linwms@lindseywilliams.org