October 4, 2009

THIRD WORLD WAR

Disturbing outlook this Sunday morning is that we are headed for a Third World War!

Such is the implied conclusion of a “confidential” report by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and circulated by the Associated Press.

Iran boasted last week that it has enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb -- and an aerial missile to deliver it to targets a thousand miles away.

The United Nations report is titled: “Possible Military Dimensions of Iran’s Nuclear Program.”

The report asserts that Iran’s complex nuclear program is run by the Ministry Of Defense.  Its objective is said to be “aimed at development of a nuclear pay-load delivered aboard the Shahab-3 missile system.”  The missile is said to be capable of striking the Middle East and most of Europe.

UNDERGROUND QOM

Of most concern to the United States of America -- and other nations -- is Iran’s nuclear fuel-processing facility under construction deep underground at Qom.

Iran insists the facility is a nuclear fuel enrichment center to produce electricity for public use -- and for medical isotopes.

Russia, a long-time friend of Iran, has provided it with enriched uranium and processing.  Russia also insists Iran’s nuclear program is just for peaceful purposes.  Hoo ha!

Whatever.  The Qom facility is a major challenge to U.S. President Barack Obama and our European allies – particularly Britain, France, and Germany.

NORTH  KOREA TECHNOLOGY

It should be remembered that an array of defensive anti-missile towers in Poland  -- for safety of European nations and U.S. military bases there – was dismantled recently at the insistence of Russia.

The United States and Europe have noted -- with growing alarm – the recent transfer of nuclear weapons and missile technology from communist North Korea to Iran.

South Korea and Japan – for whom we have guaranteed protection – are getting edgy.  At present, the U.S. has 28,500 troops in South Korea.  All are scheduled for departure on April 17, 2012.

OBAMA’S OUTLOOK

President Obama said last week:

“Iran’s taking the step of transferring its low-enriched uranium to a third country (Russia) would be a step towards building confidence that Iran’s program is, in fact, peaceful.”

Nonetheless, Obama concluded:

“We’re not interested in talking for the sake of talking.  If Iran does not take steps in the near future to live up to its obligations, then the United States will not continue to negotiate indefinitely – and we are prepared to move towards increased pressure.”

IRAN URANIUM

The day after Obama’s conciliatory remarks, Mehdi Saffare, Iran’s ambassador to Britain and a member of the Iranian delegation to the negotiations, told the Associated Press that the idea of sending Iran’s enriched uranium out of the country “had not been discussed yet.”

Americans can remember how -- in 2007 --European diplomats thought they had persuaded Iran to send Russia its raw uranium to Russia for enrichment.

However, Iran’s “supreme religious leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected the proposal as “an infringement of Iran’s sovereignty.”

Obama’s secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, has said that prospects for diplomacy was “very doubtful.”

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has said military action will do no more than “buy time.”

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said:

“I’ve heard from the Obama administration last week that a strategy of backing the Iranian opposition ‘would take too long’ -- and might well produce a government with the same nuclear policy.  They don’t want to help spoilers in Russia and China who want to block U.N. action against Iran for their own reasons.”

And, we add: North Korea, which sells long-range missiles to Iran.  The latter made a great effort last week to show off its North Korea missiles that are capable of lofting Iran’s up-coming nuke.

WHY THIRD WORLD WAR

All of the above brings us to the somber prediction of a Third World War that -- inevitably -- will involve the United States of America as a peace-loving super-power.  Figure that out!

The war most likely will be triggered by an Iranian threat to “nuke” and/or invade Israel.

Israel has demonstrated several times that it cherishes the lives of its citizens.  That nation has a storehouse of nukes and has demonstrated it will take military action if sorely provoked by vowed enemies.

IRAN DICHOTOMY

Iran is really governed by religious leaders who laud those who commit suicide in the name of Allah -- against non-believers.

Nevertheless, Iran has a large population of moderate, well-educated citizens who believe in democracy and modern values.

The two groups fight and kill each other over religion and democracy.  Iran cannot take full advantage of the modern world until it fully tolerates other races, religions and technology.

Unfortunately, one religious zealot – with a single, perverted, bombing – could provoke a war in the Mid East that will expand to involve free people everywhere!

The United Nations Assembly is of no use in solving basic, international problems.

The United States Of America is weary of two World Wars, nation-building in Europe, and the Middle East.

WISDOM BY WILL ROGERS

Sorry for my somber prediction.  As an historian, I know something about the vicissitudes of nations.

The upside is that the Third World War likely will be followed by a thousand years of peace and prosperity.

Let us not forget the wise words of my favorite late “Cowboy Philosopher” Will Rogers:

“Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.”

By Lindsey Wilger Williams, retired newspaper publisher and syndicated columnist