June 3, 2001

Pearl Predicted

The new film "Pearl Harbor" fails to mention a startling prediction by a newspaper reporter 16 years before the Dec. 7, 1941, sneak attack by Japan.

Hector C. Bywater, naval correspondent for the London Daily Telegraph, wrote a best-selling novel of the World War II Pacific campaign in uncanny detail in 1925.

The Japanese high command followed Bywater's blueprint almost to the letter - except the conclusion that Japan could not defeat an aroused United States.

Bywater's book, "The Great Pacific War," opens with Japan's seizure of Manchuria -- as actually occurred. An exchange of diplomatic notes between Japan and the U.S. ensued. In the midst of these negotiations, Japan strikes by surprise.

In one of the book's few variations from reality, Bywater wrote that the "complete destruction of the U.S. Pacific fleet came near Manila Bay as our Asiatic Squadron cruised in open sea."

At a time when the aircraft carrier was hardly more than an experiment, Bywater predicted the Japanese attack would be led by carrier-based airplanes.

Simultaneously with the attack on the U.S. fleet, Bywater postulated that the Japanese would invade Guam and the Philippines.  He said the Guam attack would start with air bombardment and the landing of troops in "large motor-propelled barges" - a landing craft that had not yet been developed.

After fitful skirmishes, he concluded, the American Marines there would be compelled to surrender, as was the case on Dec. 10, 1941.

Hostilities in the Philippines would commence when Japanese planes "heavily bombed the aerodrome at Dagupan."  The real attack came against Clark Field, which had replaced Dagupan.

Bywater wrote that the Japanese would bypass the fort at Corregidor guarding Manila Bay until the islands were secured. Then, Corregidor would be starved into submission --- as precisely happened.

Bywater predicted the Philippine invasion would include major landings "at Lingayen Gulf and Lamon Bay."  The two forces would then converge on Manila.

The second largest island of the Philippine archipelago, Mindanao, would be invaded with a landing at Sindangan Bay.  The total invading force would consist of  "an approximate strength of 100,000 men." His informed estimate is astonishing.  The landings took place at the exact spots predicted in the exact strength.

"The chief danger the Japanese perceived," wrote Bywater, "would come from American aircraft, for 30 machines of a new and powerful type would have just arrived from the United States."

In reality, 16 years later, 35 new B-17 Flying Fortresses did start arriving in late November 1941. Several flew into Pearl Harbor while the Japanese attack was underway!

* * *

Bywater theorized that the United States would have to defeat Japan with a slow, island-by-island march across the Pacific.  The route he traced was only slightly south of that actually traveled by American admirals.

The reporter imagined that once the Americans were within striking distance of retaking the Philippines, the Japanese navy would be massed to stop them.  The two navies then would fight a tremendous naval engagement that would become the turning point of the war.  It was if Bywater saw the battle of Midway in his mind's eye.

Even the desperate Kamikaze tactic of fanatic Japanese airmen was foreseen by Bywater.  "Seeing defeat imminent, Japanese aviators never hesitated to ram when otherwise balked of their prey, preferring to immolate themselves."

Bywater did not foresee the atomic bomb, but he did predict a dramatic end of the war.  He wrote that the U.S. -- desiring to spare itself and the Japanese the horror on an all-out invasion -- carried out a "demonstration" air raid on Tokyo.  The bombs contained leaflets urging the Japanese to surrender rather that "waste more lives."

Col. Jimmy Doolittle did lead a demonstration-bombing raid by 16 bombers against Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Kobe and several industrial centers. Later, millions of leaflets were showered on Japanese cities.

In Bywater's account, the raid did bring the Japanese to their senses; and a treaty of peace stripped the enemy of many of its island possessions.

President Truman considered detonating one of the two atomic bombs on an uninhabited part of Japan as a warning.  However, he did not wish to risk letting the technology fall into the hands of Japan if the first bomb did not explode, or to lose the opportunity of ending the war if the second bomb was a dud.

* * *

"The Great Pacific War" was published while Isoroku Yamamoto, the admiral who masterminded the actual Japanese naval strategy, was an attaché with the Japanese embassy in Washington.

The novel was featured in the New York Times' widely circulated book section in 1925. The Japanese embassy registered an official protest over the review, declaring it "provocative."

Bywater and Yamamoto met by chance in a Washington, D.C., restaurant and amiably shared a bottle of scotch while discussing the reporter's book. When Yamamoto returned to Japan he lectured the military academy about Bywater's articles.

Bywater's informant in Japan was an Englishman named Cox. He was killed ink 1940 by falling (thrown?) from a three-story window at police headquarters.

Three days later, Bywater was discovered dead in his bed at Richmond, England, amidst the strong odor of strychnine. He was buried the same day, and the exact cause of death was not determined.

It is speculated that Yamamoto ordered Bywater's assassination to eliminate the one man who knew the plan for war to be undertaken against the U.S. Pacific forces.

Bywater's prophesies --- that the Imperial Navy would be shattered, the Philippines retaken, and the Japanese homeland bombed -- were all brushed aside by the naval intelligence officer Kinoaki Matsuo. He argued that Japan would display "a courage a hundred times higher than ordinary."

What tragedy that the Japanese -- having taken Bywater's tactics seriously -- failed to heed his warnings as well.

Author: Lindsey Williams

cutline - 3 col. pearl

 Photo by U.S. Naval Historical Center

[The Battleship U.S.S. Pennsylvania, center, fought off the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor while on dry land! It was in dry dock, with two destroyers, undergoing regular maintenance, when the battle started. Within minutes, enemy bombs had totally destroyed the two smaller ships and set afire the bow of the Pennsylvania. One bomb penetrated the Pennsylvania's boat deck near a 5-inch three-gun casemate, exploding ammunition there. This direct hit killed 26 seamen and two officers. A crewman operating an emergency steam boiler on the dock was killed by enemy strafing. Another 29 men were severely burned or wounded by strafing. The crew of Pennsylvania continued to fire at several waves of enemy planes. Two were shot down. The Pennsylvania was repaired, refloated and ready for sea five days later. The Pacific fleet's four aircraft carriers, with cruiser and destroyer escorts, were at sea on maneuvers when Pearl Harbor was attacked. Within three months, battleships U.S.S. Maryland and Tennessee were ready for sea. Battleships U.S.S. Nevada, California and West Virginia were refloated by June. However, the first naval battle between U.S. and Japan - Coral Sea, May7-8, 1942 -- was fought by aircraft carriers out of sight of each other. The U.S.S. Lexington, and Japanese carrier Soho were sunk. It was an American victory by preventing a Japanese assault on Port Moresby. The decisive battle of the Pacific War was that of Midway in June 3-6, 1942. It also was fought mainly by aircraft carriers six months after the Pearl Harbor attack aimed at battleships. The day of battle ships was over.]  

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